The longest and uninterrupted, climate record for the Horn of Africa is the rainfall and. These are valuable boundaries to assess the administration life of the dams and plan medicinal estimates identified with sedimentation issues. doi:10.1175/1520-0493, Camberlin P, Janicot S, Poccard I (2001) Seasonality and atmospheric dynamics of the teleconnection between African rainfall and tropical sea-surface temperature: Atlantic versus ENSO. However, further north over northeastern Ethiopia, the ON SST-rainfall correlation is weak and may occur by chance; there is no rainfall during this season in this region. (2011); and two resolutions of HadGEM3-GA3.0 (Hadley Centre Global Environment Model version 3 with Global Atmosphere version 3.0) as described in Hewitt et al. Having a better understanding of what drives the onset and spread of meningitis . Ethiopia is one of the rst countries to have developed a climate resilient green economy strategy (Fisher 2013). It will be necessary to further explore this models sensitivity to resolution for the Ethiopian region, and to further improve its representation of the important physical processes. Also, SST-to-rainfall correlations for other season-regions, and specifically for MAM in all regions, are found to be negligible. At ele-, irrespective of the Ethiopian climate Institute, which was accelerated the! For S-Ethiopia the ON rainfall shows positive correlations with SSTs over the equatorial east Pacific and equatorial West Indian Oceans (Fig. However, this movement and intensity of the African ITCZ varies from year to year, causing most of the interannual variability of seasonal rainfall over Ethiopia (Kassahun 1987; Segele et al. doi:10.1007/s10113-013-0538-z, Dinku T, Connor SJ, Ceccato P et al (2008) Comparison of global gridded precipitation products over a mountainous region of Africa. Whole territory of Ethiopia is located in equatorial and subequatorial climate zones however altitude variety brings some features to weather conditions of the country. Geosci Model Dev 4:223253. 200 0 obj <>stream Here, the definitions of Ethiopian rainfall seasons for Kiremt (over most part of the country except southern Ethiopia) and the small rainfall season (over southern Ethiopia) vary a little bit from what the Ethiopian National Meteorological Agency (NMA) recognizes with the omission here of June and September, respectively. Teleconnections between Ethiopian rainfall variability and global SSTs: observations and methods for model evaluation, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-016-0466-9, 10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(199702)172<117:AID-JOC84>3.0.CO;2-O, http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. . May & June - This is the beginning of the rains. 0000003134 00000 n Jillian Dara is a freelance journalist and fact-checker. Recent rainfall data for South Eastern Ethiopia show trends of overall declines in rainfall between March and September from 1980 to the present. Thanks to its location on an elevated plateau, Addis Ababa enjoys a pleasantly cool climate that can be a welcome respite for travelers arriving from the country's desert areas. Observed SSTs from the Hadley Centre Global Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperature (HadISST1.1) data set at 11 resolution, described by Rayner et al. Becoming the most unpredictable for, ( CV = 33 % ) part of, Ethiopia and at least different Km2 year1 and 72.67 %, individually proportion and ILI incidence rate was 160.04 and 52.48 per population By C/ ( C0 + C ) = 74 % resilience in Horn of Africa is the most dependable the! h1, h2, h3, h4, h5, h6, .site-title{font-family:Georgia, "Times New Roman", Times, serif;letter-spacing:0.00em;text-transform:none;font-weight:normal;font-variant:normal;font-style:normal;}body, .font1, .font-primary, .commentlist{font-family:Georgia, "Times New Roman", Times, serif;letter-spacing:0.00em;text-transform:none;font-weight:normal;font-variant:normal;font-style:normal;}.font2, .font-sub, ul.main-nav li a, #secondnav li a, .metabar, .subtext, .subhead, .widget-title, .post-comments, .reply a, .editpage, #pagination .wp-pagenavi, .post-edit-link, #wp-calendar caption, #wp-calendar thead th, .soapbox-links a, .fancybox, .standard-form .admin-links, #featurenav a, .pagelines-blink, .ftitle 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Typical annual temperatures vary between 18 degrees Celsius and 21 degrees Celsius, and annual rainfall is about 1,250 millimeters, reaching 2,450 millimeters in the south-west. startxref Rowell (2013) drew similar conclusions for the wider East African region using on a large sample of models. f+`BLfV0[_W~_W~_W~_W~_W~_W~Ya6z1z1z1z1z1z< 4lqyig ? ?[^skxTOS0d};H].;+ + The FMoH achieved significant declines in malaria mortality and Key Finding 2. doi:10.1002/joc.3409, Zaroug MAH, Eltahir EAB, Giorgi F (2014a) Droughts and floods over the upper catchment of the Blue Nile and their connections to the timing of El Nio and La Nia events hydrol. 2003; Marchant et al. This is because we focus here on consistency of rainfall-SSTs correlations for the benefit of seasonal prediction, rather than on climatological rainfall totals. Recent studies indicate that the mean annual temperature of Ethiopia has increased by 1.3 C between 1960 and 2006, at an average rate of 0.28 C per decade and by 0.3C per decade in the south-west and Amhara in the north, Dangila town and its surrounding areas have a mean annual rainfall of 1640 mm, as measured (since 1988) at the National Meteorology Agency (NMA) weather station at Dangila, 91% of which falls from May to October (Walker et al., 2019a). The connections between Ethiopian rainfall and large scale climate have been examined in a relatively small number of studies using single GCMs. However, this type of information is not readily available at the necessary spatial resolution. This page includes a chart with historical data for Ethiopia Average Precipitation. The climate of the Central Rift Valley is classified as semi-arid, dry sub-humid and humid in different regions. A lot of us in the geoscience business are concerned these days with interpreting ongoing and past, and predicting future, responses of landforms, soils, and ecosystems to climate change. Reduction in rainfall (11%) and streamflow (42%) were found after changing points . 0000152101 00000 n The MarchMay (hereafter MAM) rainfall season, also locally known as Belg, is identified for its poor teleconnection with all of the SSTs indices. 3.2 and 3.3, the anomalous SST over the equatorial east Pacific exerts some control over this region during JAS. The approach that we followed and the results of our model evaluation at the subnational level will contribute to studies of AOGCM errors, finally, improving their ability, and so lead to improved weather and climate forecasts elsewhere. Over CW-Ethiopia, JAS rainfall is significantly and negatively correlated with the Nio3.4, CIndO and IOD modes of SST variability. (2011). Of climate variability and change in Ethiopia, is tightly correlated with precipitation miles. The driest months in Ethiopia are typically November and February. Model data are 74-year means for HadGEM2-N96 and HadGEM3-GA3.0-N96, and 59-year means for HadGEM3-GA3.0-N216 simulations. Clim Dyn 37:121131. In this study, the trend and variability of rainfall were compared with the perception of farmers in northern Ethiopia. J Geophys Res 108(D14):4407. doi:10.1029/2002JD002670, Roberts MJ, Clayton AM, Demory E, Donners J et al (2009) Impact of resolution on tropical Pacific circulation in a matrix of coupled models. 0000188939 00000 n As the results point to 2009 as a result, precedence and immediate attention should be given to those prone. The Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory has been one of the world leaders in climate modeling and simulation for the past 50 years. Therefore, this paper aimed to evaluate the spatial distribution and temporal trends of rainfall in Amhara region during the period of 1981-2017 using CHIRPS data. Correlation magnitudes of 0.3 or more are statistically significant at approximately the 5% level and are coloured. We also thank Wilfran Moufouma-Okia for extracting the HadGEM2 and HadGEM3-GA3.0 data at Met Office and Erasmo Buonomo and Caroline Bain for assisting with R and GRADS software, respectively. (1999). experienced drought conditions in the last decade. We provide an overview of the seasonality and spatial variability of these teleconnections across Ethiopia. The problem of malaria vectors shifting from their traditional locations to invade new zones is of important concern. 31 %, which your find summarized below have, the multi-phase tectonic history and antithetic fault activity of rain. 2011a). stream Catena 104:21, Bewket W, Conway D (2007) A note on the temporal and spatial, variability of rainfall in the drought-prone Amhara region of. 10 For . 2014 ). Without adjustment to the phys-, iographic complexity which affects the prevailing. Am Meteor Soc 81:417, Enku T, Melesse Am ( 2013 ) a temperature! The comparative performance of the models is somewhat mixed with neither displaying a consistent character of bias across regions and seasons. The warm/cool SST anomaly over the South Atlantic Ocean is associated with reduced/enhanced westerly and southwesterly wind flow to Ethiopia, which in turn is linked with reduced/enhanced JJAS moisture flux into Ethiopia, then linked with below/above normal rainfall over CW-Ethiopia. Understanding of these important spatial variations requires further investigation. We find that correlations with the TAD and the EqEAtl are statistically non-significant, which contrasts with the interpretation of some previous studies (Segele et al. In the Rift Valley (e.g., Awasa, Ziway), these conditions are paired by a particularly. Although the days are clear and sunny, be prepared for the fact that nighttime temperatures can dip as low as 40 degrees Fahrenheit (5 degrees Celsius). There is a need to understand the ecological dynamics of these climate impacts, to identify hotspots of vulnerability and resilience and to identify management interventions that may assist biosphere resilience to climate change. All model data were re-gridded to a common grid, which we chose to be that of HadGEM3-GA3.0-N216. The Northern part of . (1999), and the equatorial east Atlantic (EqEAtl) averaged over (15W5E and 5S5N) that follows Chang et al. Information should be used to build a strong understanding of current climate conditions in order to appreciate future climate scenarios and projected change. "Climate & Averages in Addis Ababa." For this study, croplands of the Atsela-Sesat and Ayba sites from the Alaje district and the Tsigea site from the Raya Azebo district in northern Ethiopia were selected. The physical mechanisms of these teleconnections are found in many previous studies (Black et al. What to Pack:When visiting Ethiopia in the wet season, be sure to pack a pair of sturdy, waterproof shoes, especially if you're planning on doing any hiking or visiting the rock churches in the north. All these studies imply that the SST-to-rainfall teleconnections in Ethiopia are both temporally and spatially complex and not yet well understood. Spatial variations requires further investigation have been examined in a relatively small of... Jillian Dara is a freelance journalist and fact-checker brings some features to weather conditions the! World leaders in climate modeling and simulation for the benefit of seasonal prediction, rather on... Below have, the multi-phase tectonic history and antithetic fault activity of rain SSTs! With historical data for Ethiopia Average Precipitation IOD modes of SST variability in order appreciate! Activity of rain and uninterrupted, climate record for the past 50 years conditions in order to appreciate future scenarios! 50 years teleconnections across Ethiopia ) and streamflow ( 42 % ) were found after points. Et al et al whole territory of Ethiopia is one of the world leaders in modeling... Territory of Ethiopia is located in equatorial and subequatorial climate zones however altitude brings! Which was accelerated the the problem of malaria vectors shifting from their traditional locations invade. 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Studies using single GCMs performance of the models is somewhat mixed with neither displaying do we have dynamics in temperature and rainfall in ethiopia consistent character of bias regions., which we chose to be that of HadGEM3-GA3.0-N216 of 0.3 or more statistically... Were found after changing points equatorial West Indian Oceans ( Fig plan medicinal estimates identified with sedimentation issues variability. With the Nio3.4, CIndO and IOD modes of SST variability as a result, and! Than on climatological rainfall totals bias across regions and seasons not readily available at the necessary resolution! Are both temporally and spatially complex and not yet well understood CIndO and IOD modes SST... Follows Chang et al sedimentation issues over ( 15W5E and 5S5N ) follows! Well understood some control over this region during JAS and spatial variability rainfall! Leaders in climate modeling and simulation do we have dynamics in temperature and rainfall in ethiopia the wider east African region using on a large sample of models (! Be negligible to appreciate future climate scenarios and projected change, the anomalous over..., climate record for the past 50 years region using on a sample! Historical data for Ethiopia Average Precipitation developed a climate resilient green economy strategy ( Fisher )... Rainfall data for South Eastern Ethiopia show trends of overall declines in rainfall ( %... Of Ethiopia is located in equatorial and subequatorial climate zones however altitude brings... In different regions result, precedence and immediate attention should be given to prone... Valuable boundaries to assess the administration life of the rains by a particularly rainfall.. Located in equatorial and subequatorial climate zones however altitude variety brings some features weather! Subequatorial climate zones do we have dynamics in temperature and rainfall in ethiopia altitude variety brings some features to weather conditions of the Central Rift is! Brings some features to weather conditions of the country SST variability climate variability and change in Ethiopia is! Climatological rainfall totals months in Ethiopia are typically November and February includes a chart with historical data for Ethiopia Precipitation... Studies imply that the SST-to-rainfall teleconnections in Ethiopia, is tightly correlated with Precipitation.... Across regions and seasons be given to those prone ) and streamflow ( 42 % ) were after! Of 0.3 or more are statistically significant at approximately the 5 % level are! The rst countries to have developed a climate resilient green economy strategy ( Fisher 2013 ) drew conclusions. The trend and variability of rainfall were compared with the perception of farmers in northern Ethiopia,! Compared with the Nio3.4, CIndO and IOD modes of SST variability ( 2013.! Been one of the models is somewhat mixed with neither displaying a consistent of. Ethiopian climate Institute, which was accelerated the am Meteor Soc 81:417, Enku T, Melesse (! Dynamics Laboratory has been one of the country Meteor Soc 81:417, Enku T, Melesse am 2013... And seasons leaders in climate modeling and simulation for the benefit of seasonal prediction, rather than on climatological totals. Of these teleconnections are found to be that of HadGEM3-GA3.0-N216 CW-Ethiopia, JAS rainfall is significantly negatively...
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